Monday, January 28, 2008

Breaking down my predictions

I predicted the nominations in 8 categories; that's 40 predictions. Of the 40, I correctly predicted 36. The four that I did not correctly predict were a bit of surprise to me. Below, I break down the eight categories. These are the real nominees:

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Paul Thomas Anderson-There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen-No Country For Old Men
Christopher Hampton-Atonement
Ronald Harwood-The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
Sarah Polley-Away From Her

**I did not predict that Polley would get a nod in this category. I, instead, predicted that Aaron Sorkin would get one for Charlie Wilson's War. Polley deserves this nod and I raved about her film Away From Her when I reviewed it. Another film that was left out in the cold was Into The Wild.

Best Original Screenplay:

Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava & Jim Capobianco-Ratatouille
Diablo Cody-Juno
Tony Gilroy-Michael Clayton
Tamara Jenkins-The Savages
Nancy Oliver-Lars And The Real Girl

**I predicted that Adrienne Shelly would get nominated for her sweet distaff story:Waitress. She died before the film was released and I was banking on the sympathy nod; it was also a good film. Instead the animated film Ratatouille took the spot.

Best Supporting Actress:

Cate Blanchett-I'm Not There (4th & 5th nods-one win for Supp. Actress)
Ruby Dee-American Gangster (1st nod)
Saoirse Ronan-Atonement (1st nod)
Amy Ryan-Gone Baby Gone (1st nod)
Tilda Swinton-Michael Clayton(1st nod)

**I correctly predicted all 5 nominees and there is no sign of Julia Roberts from Charlie Wilson's War. Sadly, her "big comeback" was shut out of the best of the year. An omission even bigger than Julia, is that of Catherine Keener for her performance in Into The Wild.

Best Supporting Actor:

Casey Affleck-The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford (1st nod)
Javier Bardem-No Country For Old Men (2nd nod-1st was for Best Actor)
Hal Holbrook-Into The Wild (1st nod)
Philip Seymour Hoffman-Charlie Wilson's War (2nd nod-1st was for Best Actor)
Tom Wilkinson-Michael Clayton (2nd nod-1st was for Best Actor)

**Again, I correctly predicted all five correctly. Shut out of this category is the wonderful Paul Dano from There Will Be Blood. Also, Tommy Lee Jones was nominated but not in this category. I think he should have been recognized here for his performance in No Country For Old Men. He was witty, droll and smart. Ben Foster, who gave a creepy yet compelling performance in 3:10 To Yuma, was shut out; I thought for sure the movie would score some love by his recognition.

Best Actress:

Cate Blanchett-Elizabeth:The Golden Age (4th & 5th nods)
Julie Christie-Away From Her (4th nod-one win)
Marion Cotillard-La Vie En Rose (1st nod)
Laura Linney-The Savages (3rd nod)
Ellen Page-Juno (1st nod)

**I did not correctly predict Cate Blanchett (interestingly, she was nominated for the same role 10 years ago in Elizabeth). I had predicted that Angelina Jolie would get a nod for A Mighty Heart. Even before the movie had come out in the summer of last year, there was lots of talk about how she would get a nod. Sadly, this is one of the few races she was shut out of. I'm surprised she got two nods in two different categories. I would have rather seen her only in the Supporting Actress category; of course, I've yet to see The Golden Age. I'll be seeing that this week. Blanchett is one of the few actors to ever be nominated for two Oscars in one year. The last time this happened was in 2005 when Jamie Foxx was nominated for Best Actor for Ray and Supporting Actor for Collateral. Also shut out was Atonement's Keira Knightley for her role as an upper crust whose suitor has a false accusation made against him.

Best Actor:

George Clooney-Michael Clayton (2nd nod-one win)
Daniel Day-Lewis-There Will Be Blood (4th nod-one win)
Johnny Depp-Sweeney Todd:The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street (3rd nod)
Tommy Lee Jones-In The Valley Of Elah (3rd nod-one win)
Viggo Mortensen-Eastern Promises (1st nod)

**I got 4 out of 5 in this category. Shut out were Ryan Gosling for Lars And The Real Girl and Tom Hanks for Charlie Wilson's War. Gosling really did deserve a nod for his role as a man who begins a relationship with a blow-up doll. I wasn't really that impressed with Mortensen's performance in Eastern Promises but there's no chance he'll win anyway, so it's a moot point. Also shut out was James McAvoy for his role as a falsely accused servant's son in Atonement. So too was Denzel Washington shown no love for either American Gangster (expected) and The Great Debaters (not expected). Emile Hirsch, who gave a haunting performance in Into The Wild, was also snubbed.

Best Director:

Julian Schnabel-The Diving Bell And The Butterfly (1st nod)
Jason Reitman-Juno (1st nod)
Tony Gilroy-Michael Clayton (1st nod)
Joel & Ethan Coen-No Country For Old Men (2nd directing nod for Joel; 1st for Ethan)
Paul Thomas Anderson-There Will Be Blood (1st directing nod)

**I correctly predicted all 5 nominees but am surprised that Sean Penn was overlooked for his direction of Into The Wild.

Best Picture:

Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood

**Another category in which I correctly predicted all 5. Something to say about these films is that none of them, at this time, has grossed $100. The highest grosser is Juno at $87 million. With the exception of Michael Clayton, I think this category looks great. I would much rather have seen either Into The Wild or even American Gangster in this category over Michael Clayton; although Into The Wild would have been more deserving than Gangster.

I'll soon be making my picks for who I think will win the little gold man. Stay tuned...


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