The Main Races

Only two more days to go until the Oscars and here are my picks for the big ones of who will win and who should win.

Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman (1st nom), Terrence Howard (1st nom), Heath Ledger (1st nom), Joaquin Phoenix (2nd nom), and David Strathairn (1st nom).

All five of these performances were strong and rightfully nominated, however, when it comes to the big prize only one will win. Ledger and Howard portrayed fictional characters and delivered outstanding performances. Strathairn, Phoenix, and Hoffman all played real characters and did the men they played justice. Phoenix does his own singing but Hoffman is the one who really showed people what he can do.

WILL WIN-Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote
SHOULD WIN-Philip Seymour Hoffman

Actress: Judi Dench (5th nom, 1 previous win), Felicity Huffman (1st nom), Keira Knightley (1st nom), Charlize Theron (2nd nom, 1 previous win), Reese Witherspoon (1st nom).

Dench and Theron have both won before and neither will win this time because their performances weren't as strong as they've given in the past. Knightley is in the "I'm just honored to be nominated" category and has the least chances of winning. Huffman deglamorized herself (Oscar loves that in this category) and really took a chance on her role as a transgender male-to-female and hit it out of the park. Witherspoon did do her own singing, however, the movie was more about Johnny Cash as opposed to the June Carter story. This is the one category I hope I'm wrong about in terms of who will win. Last year the Academy gave the award to Hilary Swank for Million Dollar Baby instead of Annette Bening for her tour de force performance in Being Julia. This year they can make up for it.

WILL WIN-Reese Witherspoon for Walk The Line
SHOULD WIN-Felicity Huffman for Transamerica

Supporting Actor: George Clooney (1st nom), Matt Dillon (1st nom), Paul Giamatti (1st nom), Jake Gyllenhaal (1st nom), and William Hurt (4th nom, 1 previous win). Let's start with who won't win: Hurt and Gyllenhaal both gave good performances but neither is strong enough to warrant a win and Hurt was only on screen for 10mins. Dillon delivered probably one of his best performances to date but it was in an ensemble piece. Giamatti really deserves this win because he was passed over for a nom in Sideways and American Splendor. Unfortunately, he gave stronger performances in both of those films. This is Clooney's award who actually put on the weight and showed people that he really can act.

WILL WIN-George Clooney for Syriana
SHOULD WIN-George Clooney

Supporting Actress: This is the category that is probably the least predictable. Who the hell knows who will win this award. One can guess but if you look at the nominees and winners in this category throughout the years, some of the winners make one go, "Huh?" So here we go.

Amy Adams (1st nom), Catherine Keener (2nd nom), Frances McDormand (4th nom, 1 previous win), Rachel Weisz (1st nom), and Michelle Williams (1st nom).

Williams and Keener gave good performances but I didn't feel that they were really strong and standout; just good enough to be noticed. McDormand's performance was stronger but not her best and the film was underwhelming. Weisz gave a standout performance and though her character died, she is prevalent throughout the film. Adams gave the freshest performance and literally lit up each scene she was in.

WILL WIN-Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener
SHOULD WIN-Amy Adams for Junebug

Adapted Screenplay:

WILL WIN-Brokeback Mountain
SHOULD WIN-Brokeback Mountain

Original Screenplay:

WILL WIN-Crash
SHOULD WIN-Crash

peace out,

paul