predictions for nominations

First of all, the shorter season for the Academy Awards is actually damaging the Oscars and they probably don’t even realize it. The nominations used to come out in mid February and were handed out in late March. There was even a time the awards weren’t handed out until April. I’m convinced the shorter time span is the reason why last year Felicity Huffman didn’t win Best Actress and Amy Adams didn’t win Best Supporting Actress; they should have. I’m convinced it’s because voters didn’t have enough time to see these movies, these performances. That, and in Huffman’s case, the performance was too daring, too edgy but that’s no excuse. In fact, when looking at the major nominations from the Golden Globes, there are still four movies that I haven’t seen. Thankfully, two of them will be released on video before the Oscars and the other two should be released in Rottenchester, oops, I mean Rochester, before Feb. 25. I think that Reese Witherspoon and Rachel Weisz were good but they weren’t the best in their respective categories. Adams’s performance in Junebug is exactly the kind of performance the Academy has historically relished rewarding in the Supporting Actress category. Check out past winners such as Dianne Wiest in Hannah And Her Sisters, Geena Davis in The Accidental Tourist, even Mira Sorvino in Mighty Aphrodite and Whoopi Goldberg in Ghost. These performances are the “breakthrough” and “revelation” performance. And considering that many cities have their own awards that are handed out (Boston, LA, NY, etc…), in order for the Oscars to still stay relevant, they need to do something to make sure all of the contenders (especially those who should be winning) are viewed.

Having said that, it's Sunday night and the Academy Award nominations will be announced at 8:30am EST in two days, Jan. 23, 2007. Here are the ones I'm predicting will get recognized.



Best Picture:

Babel
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Departed
The Queen



Best Director:

Martin Scorsese-The Departed
Stephen Frears-The Queen
Bill Condon-Dreamgirls
Clint Eastwood-Letters From Iwo Jima
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu-Babel
(wild card) Paul Greengrass-United 93



Best Screenplay (Original):

Babel
The Queen
Little Miss Sunshine
Stranger Than Fiction
Pan's Labyrinth
(wild card)-Volver



Best Screenplay (Adapted):

The Departed
Little Children
Children Of Men
Thank You For Smoking
Notes On A Scandal



Best Supporting Actor:

Eddie Murphy-Dreamgirls
Djimon Hounsou-Blood Diamond
Jackie Earle Haley-Little Children
Ben Affleck-Hollywoodland
Jack Nicholson-The Departed



Best Supporting Actress:

Cate Blanchett-Notes On A Scandal
Jennifer Hudson-Dreamgirls
Adriana Barraza-Babel
Rinko Kikuchi-Babel
Abigail Breslin-Little Miss Sunshine



Best Actor:

Forest Whitaker-The Last King Of Scotland
Peter O'Toole-Venus
Will Smith-The Pursuit Of Happyness
Leonardo DiCaprio-The Departed
Sacha Baron Cohen-Borat



Best Actress:

Judi Dench-Notes On A Scandal
Meryl Streep-The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet-Little Children
Helen Mirren-The Queen
Penelope Cruz-Volver
(I should mention a possibility: Maggie Gyllenhaal-Sherrybaby).

peace,

paul